tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4455700514377143758.post5107904535080595352..comments2024-03-28T07:00:06.844+00:00Comments on Now Appearing: Politics has got interestingBrian Clegghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12723555872580740773noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4455700514377143758.post-715734268753440002016-02-22T18:37:48.538+00:002016-02-22T18:37:48.538+00:00I wasn't, in all fairness, attempting to prese...I wasn't, in all fairness, attempting to present a case for leaving - I was saying that my starting point was to be marginally in favour of leaving, but I could be persuaded otherwise if someone could produce a good argument.<br /><br />Personally, I'd think more Canada that Norway or Switzerland - but it's difficult to provide a total comparator model as none of the examples have an equivalent size of economy. Norway, for instance, is only around 1/6th the size, and even Canada is around half the size.Brian Clegghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12723555872580740773noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4455700514377143758.post-2254851184735447382016-02-22T15:16:33.604+00:002016-02-22T15:16:33.604+00:00I don't see Norway or Switzerland being partic...I don't see Norway or Switzerland being particularly badly off.<br /><br />Myself, I'm torn in two: I'm not British, but our country is in the EU, and my main goal is similar to the British conservative position: don't allow EU develop into a federalist superstate as the leaders in Brussels are hopelessly disconnected from reality as well as voters.<br /><br />But which will help me more? Britain remaining in EU as an ally that votes in a sane way, or Britain leaving the EU to really teach a lesson to Brussels and rein it in and force it to back off? I don't know.<br />pjthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10222012841171277081noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4455700514377143758.post-42289158901620556322016-02-22T12:09:11.610+00:002016-02-22T12:09:11.610+00:00I think if one is to compare what the EU - UK rela...I think if one is to compare what the EU - UK relationship would be like, it's better to look to Norway rather than Switzerland. The Swiss economy is less similar to the UK than Norway's, although the Norwegians rely more on their natural resources for their wealth than perhaps the UK does. Here is an interesting report published by the Norwegian government (in English) looking at the pros and cons of Norway being on the outside of the EU.<br /><br />https://www.regjeringen.no/globalassets/upload/ud/vedlegg/eu/nou2012_2_chapter27.pdf<br /><br />There is the argument that the UK would be better served by being outside the EU in terms of what it would mean for London as a financial hub. It is, perhaps, true that London and the UK would have more freedom to set their finance rules and attract global capital by being outside the EU, but I suspect the opposite might be true. By not being in the EU, financial service companies might decide to move their operations to Frankfurt or somewhere that is tied to the common market. The UK might be able to combat this through compensation schemes, tax breaks, looser regulations, or other such means. However, if there was anger at the banks for the damage caused during the 2008 crash, the legal and tax changes necessary to keep them in the UK might exacerbate the problem rather than allowing the UK to regulate their practices more efficiently. It could also cause a heavier dependence on the financial sector if it becomes an even more important part of the UK economy. I'm not saying this will happen, but there is no guarantee that freedom from EU regulations necessarily brings only good things.<br /><br />On the topic of separate agreements on trade and finance with other parts of the world, I think there is a real danger that the UK will be more of hostage in negotiations than a partner. Certainly negotiating a trade agreement with the US bilaterally will be a faster process, but one should be under no illusions who the stronger partner in those negotiations will be, based on the size of the respective markets, and who will then set the terms for an agreement. The same is true for a re-negotiated agreement with the EU, which would be likely to take the form of the old EFTA framework, the need for access for exports will be much greater for the UK than for the EU and this will be apparent to all. <br /><br />The UK is already exempt from any of the most onerous parts of the EU: the Euro, Schengen, immigration laws, etc. The UK already has a sizeable rebate in its fees, far greater than any other EU nation. As a citizen of Sweden, that also enjoys exemptions and has a large EU skeptic population, it is hard to understand what the UK is complaining about. As one of the largest, most influential and, yet, least affected by EU regulations, the UK seems to already have the best of both worlds; a seat at the decision-making table, access to the world's largest single market, the largest and most important financial center of the EU, unrestrained mobility for its citizens, no requirement to take part in the ECB, Euro, Schengen or Dublin agreements and pays less than any comparable country its size and, for that matter, less per capita than many smaller countries, such as Sweden.<br /><br />I have wondered what the dream scenario for the UK would be under the circumstances. It would seem that the UK already has the lion's share of benefits and a very small amount of drawbacks with the agreements already in place, but perhaps I have missed some critical parts of the EU experience that weigh particularly heavily on the UK.Ian Baldnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4455700514377143758.post-53545432832341261742016-02-22T11:27:15.353+00:002016-02-22T11:27:15.353+00:00Boris Johnson makes a very informed and reasoned c...Boris Johnson makes a very informed and reasoned case for Brexit here: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12167643/Boris-Johnson-there-is-only-one-way-to-get-the-change-we-want-vote-to-leave-the-EU.htmlcromercroxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09963551114404818534noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4455700514377143758.post-26620449216858572132016-02-22T10:53:39.737+00:002016-02-22T10:53:39.737+00:00I do not see you making a positive case for leavin...I do not see you making a positive case for leaving the EU. It almost appears to ybe your default position. <br /><br />What I think I shall do in this debate is ask those who thing we should leave to describe what sort of country the UK should be post-EU. In particular, how it should structure its trade with the world.<br /><br />In particular, should we be like:<br /><br />1) Norway - in the EEA<br />2) Switzerland - bilateral EU model<br />3) 1960's Iceland - join the defunct EFTA<br />4) Canada/Mexico - WTO backed agreements<br /><br />Or is there some other credible model?<br /><br />Details can be found in this LSE paper for all these models.<br /><br />http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit01.pdfLe Canard Noirhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07565056022495154803noreply@blogger.com