Politics has got interesting

I've always been interested in politics and take the opportunity to bore friends on the subject on a regular basis in revenge for them boring me with sport. But it takes a particularly inward-looking person not to think that politics has got interesting (sadly sport never will achieve this).

It started with the Scottish referendum, took on speed with the potential US presidential candidates and is now back with us over here for a potential Brexit.

Underlying all these events is a dissatisfaction with the status quo and the political establishment - and it really is about time. I'm not going to comment on the US situation as its not my country (though a Trump / Sanders or even a Trump / Clinton election would be fascinating), but I can certainly reflect on the possibility of a British exit from the EU, where I'm a floating voter, currently leaning slightly towards the out side.

I am opened to be swayed, but please don't try using ad-hominem attacks on individuals, on either side of the debate. I find it amusing that those who deride the Out camp for including the likes of Nigel Farage and George Galloway are usually the same people who want bank bosses hung from the lampposts... while apparently failing to spot that said bosses are firmly in the In camp. So for once, try to make a political argument without simply calling people names. If you arguing for In, remember you are in bed with David Cameron and George Osborne.

Here's my starting point. There are clearly pros and cons of In and Out. (Sadly, Dave's option of 'shake it all about' didn't deliver much.) But there is no doubt that EU regulations put significant difficulties in the way of our deciding our own fate, and the UK is a very different beast to most of Europe. Companies moan that leaving the EU will be bad for trade. Personally, though, as a small business owner, I find it much easier to sell to the US or Australia than the EU. In fact I've had to give up selling ebooks directly to the  EU altogether because of their ridiculous regulation that EU businesses have to pay VAT on e-goods at the level that applies in the buyer's country to that country.

Against leaving, I can certainly see that Brexit would cause an upheaval, and it seems very likely that EU countries would punish us by taking it out on us any way they can. But rather than put up a straw man, I thought I'd use a well-reasoned 'why stay' argument from this article in The Guardian by Timothy Garton Ash.

Before we hit any sensible arguments, let's take on Ash's bizarre moan that non-British EU citizens who live in the UK won't be able to vote in the referendum. That's surely less of an issue than the way non-Scottish British citizens weren't allowed to vote in the referendum to split up the UK - yet (and I may be maligning him, as I certainly didn't read everything) I don't remember Ash complaining about this. Whatever, this is an irrelevancy.

So what are Ash's arguments, and do they sway me? In summary they appear to be:

• It would be madness to allow Britain's membership of the EU rest on how effective Cameron's emergency brake was.
• Out is riskier than In. We know what In is like, but not Out.
• The negotiation will be painful.
• It's cold outside - Norway and Switzerland don't have fun.
• The EU helps keep us safe from terrorism.
• It would be hard on Ireland.
• Scotland would leave the UK.

At first sight, an impressive bunch of arguments, but to be honest, they're mostly unfounded rhetoric. The first is true, but irrelevant. It isn't a major reason for wanting to leave. The second is almost true. But 'riskier' is the wrong word. Far better is 'more uncertain.' Because the 'riskier' argument only applies if being In isn't bad. To take an extreme example, if you were faced with a choice of being executed or attempting to escape, the escape is more uncertain, but staying is riskier. If you believe staying is bad for Britain, Ash is using a pointless argument. If you believe it's good, then it's self sustaining. In effect it's a concealed circular argument.

The negotiation will be painful? Absolutely. No argument about that. If you get yourself into a mess it usually is painful to get out of it. But that doesn't mean you shouldn't try. This is probably my strongest wavering point because I believe some countries, notably France and the Eastern Europeans, will be as bloody minded as they can and make it as painful as possible. So definitely a consideration, but not an argument for not doing the right thing, should Out be the right thing.

It's cold outside. Possibly. But, leaving aside Switzerland seems to do quite nicely, these are both far too small a country to make a realistic comparison. Canada might be better. But to think that other countries, especially the US and the Commonwealth countries, won't do a trade deal with as big a market as the UK is ludicrous. Some businesses will end up worse off. Others will thrive from losing EU red tape. It's nuanced and certainly not a deal breaker.

The EU helps keep us safe from terrorism. Really? Evidence? Certainly sharing intelligence helps, but do you think EU countries will stop sharing intelligence and risk their own security just to spite us. Whereas having full control of borders can, in principle, have a positive effect on reducing the terrorist threat.

It would be hard on Ireland. So? Much as Ireland thought about the UK when it set corporation tax so low that all those nasty multinationals based their HQs there rather than the UK? I don't remember all those Irish politicians saying 'What about the negative impact on the UK?' And as for Irish workers in the UK, this hardly started with the EU and it wouldn't stop without it. We won't stop having a special relationship with Ireland just because we leave the EU.

Oh, yes. And the clincher. Scotland would leave the UK. Firstly this isn't a fact, it's a hypothesis. The i newspaper today suggested that it's one thing for Nicola Sturgeon to make the threat and it's another for a referendum-weary electorate, knowing that Scotland can no longer rely on oil revenues, to back her. But even if it were the case, as I mentioned at the time, I'm all in favour of Scottish independence. I think it would be a large benefit for the rest of the UK. So this isn't an anti-argument for me.

There we have it then - Mr Ash has failed to persuade me. But I am genuinely unsure which way to vote and would love some more effective arguments. Tell me why I'm wrong...

UPDATE - A couple of early contributions to help persuade me otherwise.

Mark Fielder on Facebook suggests that:
One is the lack of any coherent plans should there be an exit from the EU.
Second is that an out vote triggers a bloodbath in the Tory party that allows a much harsher group of politicians to take over.
Thirdly, if we don't like it and want back in, it'll be on "their" terms, including the Euro. Right now, we're in the EU largely on our terms.

Some fair points. There has been some work done, I believe on wargaming the impact of exit and how to deal with it, but I don't know what the plans are. Some would argue that your second point would be good, as it means they're less likely to get re-elected. And I'd have thought the obvious outcome would be Boris taking over, which I'm not sure would be a huge shift to the right. And thirdly - I don't think we're likely to want back in any time soon if we leave. And that scenario assumes the Euro doesn't collapse entirely - too speculative to be helpful.

Alexander Armbruster on Twitter points me to this article by Anatole Kaletsky.
The main arguments seem to be:

• It won't happen anyway because the Out camp will be split and the public won't go that way.
• There will be huge economic costs because of our dependence on services.
• There will be no political benefits.

The first argument isn't argument to change the mind, just a prediction, so irrelevant for my purposes.

The second argument may have an element of truth, but makes use of the weak Norway/Switzerland model. The UK is a much bigger market for European goods and services than these countries, and European countries would have a lot to lose if their actions produced a trade embargo. I'm really not convinced that the only way they would tolerate our service sector is if it were neutered. 

The third point is just a statement - no argument is provided.

Sara Crowe on Facebook points to this pro-Brexit article which points out it is possible to be anti-EU without being anti-Europe or a 'little Englander'.