Generally speaking I'm a bit so-so about recreational mathematics . I can't get very excited about polyominoes or tiling, for instance. But when the field strays into probability I get fascinated - and the mind gets boggled. Take the little probability problem mentioned in the New Scientist article I've linked to there. It gets rather lost in the article, and they don't describe it particularly well. Let's take a look. The problem statement is simple. I have two children. One is a boy born on a Tuesday. What is the probability I have two boys? But to get a grip on this problem we need first to take a step back and look at a more basic problem. I have two children. One is a boy. What is the probability I have two boys? A knee-jerk reaction to this is to think 'One's a boy - the other can either be a boy or a girl. So there's a 50:50 chance that the other is a boy. The probability that there are two boys is 50%.' Unfortunately that's wrong.

I was expressing some surprise at an APR (annual interest rate) advertised on the TV for a monthly payments store the other day. It was getting on for 30%, which seemed a lot, given the current bank interest rates. It is, after all, more than credit cards charge. But then another advert came on for a company called QuickQuid . I was so gobsmacked by the interest rate offered that I had to go to their website and check. To be fair to them, it has come down since the TV ad. When I looked the typical APR was 2278%. That's not 22.78% but 2278. Yes, two thousand, two hundred and seventy eight percent . What can I say? The mind truly boggles. I hate to think what the rate would be if bank interest rates were high...

'Sustainable' is a word you hear banded about a lot these days. As I describe in Ecologic , it's a term that is often used because it sounds good, without thinking through what it really means. There are broadly two possible meanings, sustainable lite and full-fat sustainable. Sustainable lite means something that's viable to continue operating. It makes economic sense and there's a continued demand for it. Full-fat sustainable is what's often implied in the green usage of the word. Here it means something that can operate without external inputs. So, for instance, a sustainable farm should be able to operate without bringing in fertiliser and other inputs. A sustainable house should be 'zero energy' requiring no energy input from the grid. Unfortunately, all too often, people try to give the impression of having full fat sustainability by sleight of hand. They try to make it look as if they are truly sustainable, while passing on the problems to som

For my birthday I received a copy of the Rough Guide to Britain , and jolly good fun it is too. Rather like my nostalgic copy of England on $10 a Day , one of the best bits is the attempt to explain to foreigners how to enjoy Britain, and what's good and bad about the food, beer and so on. (I found the food part rather patronising, as it half wanted to sneer at the way some places still served old fashioned pub food of the nasty variety, yet at the same time rather bemoaned the way a lot of pubs have gone up-market. Get your act together, Rough Guide.) Now there is a tradition the world over, just as we all have a tendency to Google ourselves, to look up places that are special to us when presented with a gazetteer. My birthplace, Rochdale, doesn't get a mention - fair enough. It's not exactly a tourist destination, unless you are into Co-operative movements. But my current place of residence, Swindon is a bit different. It is, after all, site of the impressive railway mu

I've been members of several forums for writers and would-be writers. Some provide superb opportunities to discuss the trials and tribulations of the writing life with fellow authors. Others are more like an X-Factor holding pen of hopefuls. But something they've all had in common is not really producing anything of value for the outside world... until now. The Litopia forum has produced an ezine by the name of Muse . When this was first proposed, to be honest, I envisaged one of those rather tatty self-produced 'magazines' that clubs knock out. A bit like the Bulletin of the British Conker Enthusiasts (apologies if BBCE exists - I was making it up). The sort of thing that tends to appear as a 'guest publication' at the end of Have I Got News For You , so everyone can sneer at it. How wrong could I be. In practice, Muse has superb production values - much better than some professional ezines I've seen - and lots of great content from author interviews

I don't know who Melanie Phillips is. Don't get me wrong, I've heard her on the radio and seen her on the TV often enough. Whenever they need an opinion, forcefully (nay, spikily) put, she's one of those they wheel out. But I don't really know why. If I'm honest, I read this book with the intention of slagging it off. I had heard that Melanie Phillips pushes global warming scepticism to the limit, and I wanted to hit back at this. I am still of the opinion that she's wrong about global warming, but there was actually much about the book I liked. It starts with a description of how, perhaps as a response to the decline in organized religion, we've seen a growth in the assorted areas often referred to online as 'woo' - anything from crystal healing to alternative medicine.  Philips uses two compelling examples in Diana, Princess of Wales and Barrack Obama where arguably a whole sentimental/emotional wash of feeling was able to totally overcome ra

With Andrew Lloyd Webber's TV show looking for a newcomer to play Dorothy in the Wizard of Oz, Over the Rainbow , now finished it's time to reflect on the great man himself. (Congratulations to Danielle, by the way - the best Dorothy won.) Lloyd Webber tends to be attacked by critics a lot, and I think unfairly. While I do tend to agree that his best work was his early stuff - there were just so many more great tunes in something like Joseph or Cats - he can write excellent stuff, and certainly knows how to put on a spectacle. Frankly, it's hard not to see sour grapes in the criticism. I certainly think he is hard done by when compared with his eighteenth century counterpart, Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart . Now at this point I can hear some sharp intakes of breath, but I genuinely believe the comparison holds. Both could write a good tune. Both wrote some musicals (I really don't see the point distinguishing between a Mozart opera and a musical) with ridiculous plots. Bo

We're used to science types and sceptics taking on a certain kind of idea as 'woo'. Anything from astrology to crystal healing comes under this banner. Broadly there are two kinds of things that get categorized as woo. Some claim to be magic, pure and simple. But others pretend to be science. They hide behind lots of scientific terms (often the language of quantum theory, as the proponents of woo delight in the apparent fuzziness of quantum mechanics). But underneath it's still made up. They might use the terms of science. Sometimes they even use the tools of science from impressive graphs to impenetrable formulae. But they don't use the method of science. It's all a made up fantasy, dressed up as the real thing. I've just read the stunning Economyths by David Orrell which points out something startling. Classical/neo-classical economics presents itself as a science - but actually it's woo. (Orrell doesn't say this literally, it's my interpreta

Before long, the festival season will be upon us. Yes, you too can stand up to your knees in mud, or queue for hours to get to a disgusting, smelly toilet. All to hear poor performances by so-so bands. Alternatively you can head off to a science festival and really have a good time. I don't know where science festivals came from, but they've crept up on us in a big way as a celebration of all that's science. I suspect they may have started as spin-offs of literary festivals, but now they're fun events in their own right. (More fun, dare I say, than a lot of rather pompous litfests.) There was a time when it was Cheltenham or, er, Cheltenham - but now you can hardly turn a corner without a science festival popping up. I'm going to be speaking at one I've not come across before - the Wrexham Science Festival. Taking place from 1 July to 10 July in this town up in the top right hand corner of Wales, the festival mostly takes place on the Glyndwr University Wrex

For obvious reasons I'm interested in books, and the future of books. As I mentioned recently I've reviewed ebook readers for Good Housekeeping , which involved a considerable amount of trying out different readers. So I am, I think, able to make a sensible comparison between the experience of reading in the traditional and new formats. For what it's worth, I currently far prefer the traditional version. It's not the 'smell and touch' argument. I really don't care what a book smells like. Actually, that's not true. I'd rather my books didn't smell at all. But the heft of a book in the hand is much more practical than an ebook reader, I prefer having two pages available at a time. I like being able to be careless with it. Turning pages is frankly a bit of a faff on the electronic version. And the page is rarely as well laid out, or as readable as the printed version. However, I do use an ebook reader, specifically Stanza on the iPhone. If I&#

I've never really seen the point of the 'game' Chinese whispers. The one where you pass a whispered message down a chain of people and supposedly at the other end it comes out garbled. But there's one way that the World Wide Web (doesn't it look old fashioned to say 'World Wide Web' now?) can perform an interesting variant on this. When a few years ago I wrote my book Light Years , I incorporated a little quote from Max Planck. Planck was responsible for the fundamental concept that started off quantum theory - that light comes in little packets or 'quanta' rather than as a continuous wave - but he was not happy with it as a real concept. It was only a fudge to make the maths work. The quote I used is this:  The whole procedure was an act of despair because a theoretical interpretation had to be found at any price, no matter how high that may be. According to lots of  websites (and a fair number of books), Planck wrote this in a letter in 190

We're all used to having our email inboxes filled with adverts for dubious medicines, requests to log in from banks we don't have accounts with, and scams that claim we've won/been left a large amount of money. (Does anyone still fall for these? Why?) But there seems to be an increase in a slightly different kind of spam, which I felt merited a reply. Dear Pamela Hill, It was very kind of you to email me, though I was deeply disappointed to see that your email was addressed to 'undisclosed recipients'. Am I not the only one? If you are going to use exclamation marks, please be judicious. One I can cope with occasionally. But putting eight of them after 'Hello' just makes you look flaky. Apparently you saw my profile at 'wed Search Results'. I'm not sure what this is, but I am certain I don't have a profile there. Perhaps you were looking at Nick rather than Brian. You rather helpfully list some of the properties one should look out f

In all the moaning and groaning about the new coalition government in the UK, most people seemed to have missed the fact that the ID card programme is to be scrapped. Personally, I think the moaning is misplaced. It's rubbish to complain about Liberal Democrats betraying people because they've had to compromise to form the coalition. All coalitions involve compromise - and usually it's a good thing. It tempers both parties more loony ideas. I also can't understand the whingeing about the 55% majority required to be able to dissolve parliament. This kind of arrangement is a standard feature of fixed term parliaments - and is already in place in Scotland. It's pathetic that people are moaning about it. I can only think they don't understand what's going on. But surely we can all agree that getting rid of the ridiculous ID card scheme is a good idea. Leaving aside the civil liberty issues, and the fact that it would not have done anything to prevent terro

In a bit of a bumper week, yesterday saw another outing with Mark O'Donnell of BBC Radio Wiltshire to a landmark of science and technology in the county. This time it was off to sunny Malmesbury to visit Dyson's R&D centre. Yep, the vacuum cleaner home of the world. (And, yes, I did get my knuckles wrapped for referring to one during the recording as a 'hoover'.) I expected this to be the low point of our tour. What were we going to see except corporate PR and a load of engineers at CAD terminals, sending instructions off to the Far East to build Dyson's products? In practice it was very different - and much more enjoyable than I expected. Ok, the corporate PR part was true. We had at least two Dyson employees with us at all times, using their fingerprints to get us through the extravagent security. One was a PR person (who by appearances was about 14). So the expectation was we were going to get the sales tour. However, in practice all the talking was done

In the old story of Alladin, the evil uncle offers new lamps for old in order to get hold of the genie's lamp. Now (the I'm sure anything-but-evil) Sony is offering new books for old, sort of. We're used to trade-ins on cars, and sometimes on electronic goods or white goods. But for the first time I can recall, Sony is offering a trade in for an old book. Bring in any old tome before 11 July (as they put it 'even a dusty old paperback') and they'll give you a £20 discount at their Sony Centres (and other participating stores) on the Pocket Edition of their ebook reader. I heard this briefly mentioned in a radio ad, and just had to follow it up. I don't know why, but there's something much more emotive about trading a book in than a car. It's almost as if they had asked you to trade in a family pet. Many of my 'dusty old paperbacks' are old friends I wouldn't want to part with. I've never been one for the 'ebook readers are rub

Yesterday, in the latest of my series of visits to science and technology sites in Wiltshire with BBC Wiltshire's Mark O'Donnell , we headed off to Porton Down. Located in pleasant countryside between Boscombe and Salisbury, Porton Down has a scary history. Set up during the First World War to produce the likes of phosgene and mustard gas, it moved on in the 1940s to work on biological warfare, including making weapons from anthrax. After the Second World War, the nerve agent VX was developed at Porton Down, and they contributed to the developed of CS gas, plus becoming notorious as a site where army guinea pigs were subjected to various chemicals to see how they reacted. But things have changed in a big way. The UK hasn't made chemical or biological weapons for 50 years, and though part of the site still belongs to the MOD, working on ways to protect the military from these kinds of weapons, the main part of the site is now all about saving lifes. Here they look at way

I really thought I'd seen the back of Feng Shui with my posts decrying Heart FM's support for this nonsense and getting advertising on it from Facebook . But no, I really can't leave it alone after the latest coverage on Heart. The scenario is this. A single presenter from the Heart breakfast show wants to get some love life. So as a test, a Feng Shui 'expert' has been brought in. She is working the magic on his room and they will see if things get better. Obviously not scientific, but it won't stop them saying how wonderful Feng Shui is if the presenter gets a girlfriend. Okay, so what's the first thing the Feng Shui expert says? Tidy up (the place was a total tip), clean and declutter. Then they add in all the magic woo like crystals, statues and orientation. But hold hard there. Of course it's going to work if you tidy up, clean and declutter. This isn't Feng Shui, it's a Kim & Aggie Shoe-in. It's hardly a surprise someone will ha

I'm currently reading the interestingly titled Bats Sing, Mice Giggle by Karen Shanor and Jagmeet Kanwal for review on www.popularscience.co.uk (see the review here ). In it, I came across a phrase that stopped me in my tracks. It seemed to typify why people are often a little worried by scientists. The context was a sensible one. It was explaining how scientists study the salamander because it has considerable regenerative properties, and we want to learn about this to see if there's anything we can make use of in helping human body regeneration. Fair enough. But then I came across this: ...neuroscientists have taken out the brain of a salamander, ground it up, and put it back in its cavity, and soon the salamander is able to function quite well again. Leaving aside that worryingly vague 'quite well', I couldn't help but wonder what would make any scientist decide this would be an interesting thing to try. And whether they could resist going 'Mwah-hah-ha

I'm indulging in one of my favourite parts of being an author at the moment - proof reading. It sounds rather dull, but this is the first time you see the inside of your book in anything like its final form. That in itself a little thrill. But also, by the time we get to proofs it has been several months since I read the text. And I find myself thinking, 'Hmm, that's not bad.' I actually enjoy reading it - which is rather encouraging. The only danger here is that enjoying it doesn't make me a good proof reader. To really do the job well you have to read the individual words, but I find myself slipping into the flow of it and shooting through. I'm always having to slow myself down. So Armageddon Science is one step closer to reality. No rush - it won't be out until November - but here's a sneak peak of the title page.

Ever since Richard Dawkins came out with The God Delusion there have been a string of books, most of them not very good, doing the reverse - trying to demonstrate that in a rational, scientific world, God is not such a stupid idea. I've read two recently. The first was, Who Made God by Edgar Andrews (see at Amazon.co.uk and Amazon.com ), which while surprisingly good in some ways, suffers from the typical flaws of such books, whether of theist or atheist persuasion. Using these links earns us commission at no cost to you     Andrews is a scientist (to be precise, Emeritus Professor of Materials at the University of London), and the book contains a fair amount of science, particularly physics, well presented in a light, if occasionally irratingly breezy way. The science content would merit this book a reasonable write-up on the www.popularscience.co.uk website were it not for the rest. There's even quite a lot that makes sense outside the science part, as long as you

It's my birthday this week, and I'm not happy about it. In the first place, I don't particularly want to celebrate it (which is one reason I'm posting this today, which isn't my birthday). I really don't. People assume this means 'I'm being modest, and I want you to make a fuss, but I think it's a bit common to ask for celebrations.' No. Really. I can see the point of celebrating your 18th, but after that, forget it. But there's something worse about this birthday. I'm going to be 55. (Pauses to give readers a chance to say 'But you don't look that old!') And for anyone who fills in forms online, this is a horrible moment. Many forms where you select your age from a drop-down box have a range that's 45-54 (broadly middle aged), which isn't too bad. But next you either get 55-64 , or even worse 55 and over . The first of these says you've moved into the category of' on the slippery slope to retirement. T

Chris Anderson's previous book, The Long Tail was arguably a book about sociology and technology and as such ( it's got an ology! ) made it onto the Popular Science website . I really couldn't justify reviewing his new title Free (see at Amazon.co.uk or Amazon.com ) there, because although at first glance it's a similar sort of title, this is much more a straightforward business book. That's not a bad thing. Though I found The Long Tail fascinating and gave it 5 stars, it wasn't a book of practical advice for business - it concentrated a lot of its message the way you could make pin money out of selling 5 copies of your ebook on lesser spotted titwarblers to other lesser spotted titwarbler fanciers, rather than giving something a real business could use (unless it was a megabusiness like Amazon that could collect in all the tiny long tail contributions). Free , on the other hand, is much more practical and although its primary driver is the impact of the

I'm in danger of really irritating myself here. The thing is, I do get irritated by people who moan about the way the usage of words change. I want to tell them to get a life. To understand that it's the nature of language to evolve. But I've just discovered there's one way that such a shift in meaning does matter to me. The sort of thing I'm all in favour of is the way 'gay' has changed meaning. The new meaning of gay is a useful one, that didn't really have an appropriate equivalent. The old meaning of gay was a weak one - not a usage I would ever have made - and there are plenty of other ways to say it. However, I have discovered I really don't like it when a word changes usage and there is no sensible substitute for its old meaning, while there are plenty of alternatives to the new meaning. I came across this recently listening to someone struggling to make a speech. He talked about blind people, and deaf people. And then he talked about &#

According to the assistant director of research at Cambridge University's computing lab, modern gadgets are endangering the survival of computing geekdom . When I was lad, my first computing experience was punching cards by hand, which we sent off by post to a computer in London, and then about 10 days later you got back a piece of paper saying you had made a mistake. Like many of my generation that were quite heavily into computing I started off with the Basic programming language, which came built-in with any self-respecting home computer. This was certainly true of my first home computer, the Commodore 64 (illustrated). Although I did professional work in NELIAC (don't ask), APL and C, my DIY computing moved on to Visual Basic - again something usable without a lot of expertise, but producing real Windows programs. (In my opinion this peaked with VB 3, in terms of having enough usability without getting too technical for an amateur.) But now, the argument from Cambridge

I've just re-read Carl Sagan's excellent The Demon-Haunted World ( amazon.co.uk or amazon.com ) - it's mosty about science as a 'candle in the dark' of illogical beliefs. At the end he speaks out powerfully on the subject of free speech. It strikes me both with the Simon Singh libel case (now, thankfully, decided in Simon's favour) and all the things we're not allowed to say, in case it causes offense or incites people to riot, that we're heading very much in the wrong direction. Sagan points out that 'within certain narrowly circumscribed limits - Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes's famous example was causing panic by falsely crying "Fire!" in a crowded theatre - great liberties are permitted in America.' He cites examples like burning effigies of the President, devil worship, a purported scientific article or popular book asserting the 'superiority' of one race, praising people like Hitler and arguing that religious groups